Strategic Thinking · Feb 2026
Inversion
! All I want to know is where I'm going to die, so I'll never go there. @ Carl Jacobi / Munger
"Invert, always invert." Many problems are easier to solve backwards. Instead of chasing vague success, identify the clear paths to failure and systematically avoid them.
01/The Inverse Logic
= Inversion: solving problems by thinking backwards from failure.
= Logic: Avoiding stupidity is easier than seeking brilliance.
02/Contrast Methodology

Forward Thinking

? How do I succeed?

Too many variables. Optimization is open-ended and exhausting.

Inverse Thinking

? What guarantees failure?

Fewer variables. Failure modes are clear, concrete, and actionable.

03/CLN: The Avoidance List Syntax

In CLN, inversion is baked into the ! operator:

= GOAL: Launch project X
! Failure Modes:
! Ignoring user feedback
! Missing the hard deadline
! Over-complicating the MVP
. Action: Review these 3 points weekly.
* Self-Test: Why is inversion powerful? || It is easier to define and avoid failure than to guarantee success. ||
04The Anti-Plan
+ Before starting, write a block: "How to fail at this."
+ Use it as a checklist of what not to do.
* The Answer: Success is often the byproduct of avoiding the disaster.